To establish that a "realistic probability" exists that a state statute applies to conduct not covered by a federal "crime of violence" definition for purposes of the categorical approach under Gonzales v. Duenas-Alvarez, 549 U.S. 183 (2007), must a defendant point to actual state prosecutions under the state statute of nonqualifying conduct?

Whether a defendant must point to actual state prosecutions under a state statute to establish a 'realistic probability' of nonqualifying conduct for the categorical approach